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UK house prices recorded their steepest monthly fall in over two years in June, according to the latest data from mortgage lender Nationwide. Prices declined by 0.8%, marking the largest drop since February 2023.

While annual growth remained positive at 2.1%, this was the slowest year-on-year increase in nearly 12 months. The downturn appears to reflect cooling demand in the wake of stamp duty threshold changes introduced in April.

Stamp Duty Changes and Market Adjustment

The stamp duty reforms mean that homebuyers in England and Northern Ireland now start paying the tax on properties over £125,000, down from the previous threshold of £250,000. First-time buyers also saw their exemption limit reduced, which has likely dampened enthusiasm, especially in lower to mid-range property brackets.

The reforms prompted a surge in transactions before the deadline, leading to a temporary drop-off in activity afterward - a trend many analysts suggest will be short-lived.

Outlook for the Housing Market

Despite the June dip, forecasters including Nationwide expect activity to rebound in the coming months. Factors supporting the market include:

• Low unemployment
• Earnings continuing to outpace inflation
• Potential interest rate cuts from the Bank of England later this year

Recent increases in mortgage approvals point toward a possible stabilisation or recovery in the second half of the year.

Implications for Businesses

For businesses, the short-term dip in house prices and transaction volumes may signal temporary caution among consumers.

However, the broader economic indicators suggest that this is more of a pause than a downturn.

See: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9dggnl4391o